Every pick published before first pitch. Every result graded by machine, at the published price.
How a pick gets made — the model, traced on two real picks →
Prop picks ranked by calibrated EV (cEV), plus the top full-game moneyline play (*game plays are ranked by raw EV; calibration pending). Times CT. The full model run also surfaced 8 more prop picks and 6 more game plays today in lanes the ledger doesn't yet vouch for — not shown here, but graded in the open ledger like everything else. conf = the batting order this pick depends on is posted. proj = still projected; the pick may move when lineups post.
| Bet | Who | First pitch | Lineup | Bet to | cEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB Over 0.5 | N. Sogard (BOS) · BOS@BAL | 6:15p | proj | -192 | +22% |
| TB Over 0.5 | M. Busch (CHC) · MIL@CHC | 6:15p | proj | -167 | +18% |
| TB Over 0.5 | J. Bauers (MIL) · MIL@CHC | 6:15p | proj | -169 | +15% |
| TB Over 0.5 | J. Burger (TEX) · TB@TEX | 7:05p | proj | -156 | +15% |
| TB Over 0.5 | M. Murakami (CWS) · CWS@HOU | 1:10p | conf | -174 | +7% |
| FG ML PIT | SF@PIT · full game | 11:35a | conf | -224 | +11%* |
One tag per published pick, in the order we ranked it — props and game plays alike. 7–11, -4.2u at published prices.
Every pick from the last card, with results and prices →
Every published pick since 2026-07-21. Market = the no-vig price; what pure luck would hit.
| Lane | W–L | Win | Market | Edge | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB Over 0.5 | 343–249 | 57.9% | 52.9% | +5.0pp | +72.2u |
| Strikeout Unders | 213–186 | 53.4% | 50.3% | +3.1pp | -0.5u |
| All model props | 1237–1127 | 52.3% | 49.8% | +2.6pp | +32.1u |
| Moneylines (FG) | 93–78 | 54.4% | 53.6% | +0.8pp | -3.9u |